Investors expect delays in Brexit talks, Barclays survey finds

By Sean Farrell

Date: Wednesday 14 Mar 2018

Investors expect delays in Brexit talks, Barclays survey finds

(ShareCast News) - Investors expect significant delays in Brexit negotiations after the UK and the EU set out contrasting versions of a deal, a survey by Barclays shows.

Fewer than 20% of investors expect a transition agreement to emerge from the EU's March summit and almost two-thirds expect transition arrangements to be delayed until October or later, according to Barclays' Brexit investor survey.

The UK was aiming to agree terms for a transition, which it wants to last about two years, at the Brussels summit on 22-23 March. But Theresa May's speech on 2 March setting out her terms was at odds with the EU's view, as stated in draft guidelines published on 7 March. The EU said questions about the Northern Irish border would have to be resolved before transition talks would begin.

Barclays said 63% of respondents believed talks about Britain's relationship with the EU would extend beyond the 29 March 2019 deadline, but still conclude before the end of the transition. But 24% expected matters to be unresolved until beyond the transition ends.

Investors are increasingly confident that May will hang on as prime minister after bridging divisions in her party with the speech, the survey found.

Investors' view of the economic outlook remained stable with the risk of recession perceived as low. The proportion of investors expecting a rate rise in May has increased but most investors think the next increase will be in the second half, the survey found.

The survey, carried out between 2 March and 9 March, covered the views of 503 Barclays clients including hedge funds, money managers and proprietary trading desks.


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