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Prolonged period of 'very modest' house price growth ahead

By Iain Gilbert

Date: Friday 11 Aug 2017

Prolonged period of 'very modest' house price growth ahead

(ShareCast News) - Research from Oxford Economics published on Friday said that house price growth in the UK is "running out of steam," with a prolonged period of modest growth likely ahead.
Annual house price growth in the UK was already at a near five year low of 2.5%, a marked shift down from the most recent peak of 10% posted in 2014.

The report indicated three main developments were likely to be behind the slowdown in growth.

First being the weak growth in median household incomes. The decreased ability to save for a deposit or gain access to finance had reduced the ability of the average Briton to move up the housing ladder with household disposable incomes falling in the 12 months leading up to 31 March for the first time in over three years.

Perhaps more importantly was the increased unaffordability of housing.

The ratio of house prices to earnings was almost back to its pre-financial crisis record with the median income of a mortgage borrower in the UK being £60,000, more than double that of the average income.

The adverse effect of the uncertainty surrounding Brexit and the recent political turmoil in the UK was seen as another potential factor.

But record low mortgage rates and interest burdens were providing a hefty prop to the market, implying that the historic triggers of a price crash were absent although the report indicated a sustained period of subdued growth lay ahead.


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