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Wednesday preview: UK GDP in focus, positive numbers expected from Admiral

By Josh White

Date: Tuesday 11 Aug 2020

Wednesday preview: UK GDP in focus, positive numbers expected from Admiral

(Sharecast News) - The state of the British economy will be front and centre first thing on Wednesday, with the latest gross domestic product (GDP) data being released for June.
Forecasts are for a decline of 21.2% for the three-month average, against the previous contraction of 19.1%, while year-on-year the economy is expected to have contracted by 22.4% in the preliminary second quarter reading, against the 1.7% shrinking it saw last year.

For June itself, the rate of contraction is anticipated to have slowed to 18.5%, from the 24% figure in May.

Elsewhere, US inflation figures for July are due in the early afternoon, while the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to stand pat on interest rates overnight.

For Admiral Group's interim numbers, UBS analyst Jonny Urwin said he is expecting a "positive result".

The main driver, he said, is the loss ratio benefit from the reduction of motor claims frequency during the Covid-19 lockdown period.

"However, this is partially offset by the £190m premium rebates, and price reduction.

"We expect combined operating ratios of around 78% and 104% for the UK motor and international segments respectively," Urwin said.

He also estimated the solvency ratio to remain "strong" at about 191%, along with an interim dividend of 46.3p per share.


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