Portfolio

European natural gas futures may still be headed higher, Goldman says

By Alexander Bueso

Date: Friday 08 Oct 2021

European natural gas futures may still be headed higher, Goldman says

(Sharecast News) - You can take Russian officials' remarks on natural gas at face value but prices in Europe may still be headed higher before additional supplies arrive, Goldman Sachs said.
As of 0909 BST, gas futures were rising by 7% to €103,35 per megawatt hour and on course for a 10% jump over the week as a whole.

That was but a mild rise when compared to September's dizzying rise and only down to remarks from Russian president, Vladimir Putin, who two days before had opened the door to increased supplies for the remainder of the continent, wrote David Hodari at Dow Jones Newswires.

For her part, Goldman Sachs's Samantha Dart reportedly said she believed Russian officials in that same regard.

Nonetheless, between now and November - when supply through existing pipelines should normalise - European prices may rise "well above current levels," she reportedly added.

That was because Gazprom might have to rely on physical delivery at the Dutch TTF hub, on top of its pipeline gas, to meet demand, as supplies at its local storage sites were nearly exhausted.

For their part, Bank of America analysts, Karen Kostanian and Ekaterina Smyk, cautioned that gas giant Gazprom's ability to boost its supplies to Europe over the coming winter "might be limited".

They argued that Russia was still filling its own domestic storages while Gazprom's output was already near a 10-year high.

Furthermore, gas flows via Ukraine were limited to the 'ship or pay' minimum.

As an aside, they reiterated their 'buy' recommendation for Gazprom shares, telling clients that it would remain "one of the main beneficiaries of the current elevated gas pricing in Europe."

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